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Sudtirol 3–3 Spezia

← Serie B 2023 · Sun, Aug 20, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Spezia win41%2.38
Draw32%3.02
Sudtirol win27%3.62

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sudtirol +0.2551%1.91
Spezia +0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.53
Over37%2.64

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Luca Moro · Spezia
30'🟨Lukas Mühl · Spezia
32'⚽ (pen)Daniele Casiraghi · Sudtirol
36'⚽Arkadiusz Reca · Spezia
45'🟨Luca Ghiringhelli · Sudtirol
50'⚽ (pen)Daniele Casiraghi · Sudtirol
62'⚽Luca Moro · Spezia
69'🟨Dimitris Nikolaou · Spezia
79'🟨Andrea Masiello · Sudtirol
86'🟨Raphael Odogwu · Sudtirol
90'🟨Mirko Antonucci · Spezia
90'⚽Raphael Odogwu · Sudtirol

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
10Shots17
4On target5
2Corners1
17Fouls20
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSudtirolSpezia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.170.12
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.710.48
cards avg (last 5)1.403.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Marco Druso
coach days384.0050.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.406.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.943.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.14
dominance (last 5)0.500.52
elo1539.141557.93
elo momentum (last 5)-7.83-4.07
eye test v1-0.96-0.61
eye trend v1-0.17-0.59
first sub minute (last 10)44.8058.30
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.530.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.05
keeper form v10.860.64
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8074.80
possession avg (last 5)45.0050.20
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.6012.40
skill v1-0.21-0.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.203.50
sot for avg (last 3)1.001.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.00
squad age29.9826.82
state index0.15-0.24
sterile dominance v10.10-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.170.23
threat rate (last 5)0.210.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40