← Serie B 2023 · Sun, Aug 20, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 41% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.02 |
| Sudtirol win | 27% | 3.62 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol +0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Spezia +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.53 |
| Over | 37% | 2.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Luca Moro · Spezia |
| 30' | 🟨 | Lukas Mühl · Spezia |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniele Casiraghi · Sudtirol |
| 36' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Reca · Spezia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luca Ghiringhelli · Sudtirol |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniele Casiraghi · Sudtirol |
| 62' | ⚽ | Luca Moro · Spezia |
| 69' | 🟨 | Dimitris Nikolaou · Spezia |
| 79' | 🟨 | Andrea Masiello · Sudtirol |
| 86' | 🟨 | Raphael Odogwu · Sudtirol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mirko Antonucci · Spezia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Raphael Odogwu · Sudtirol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sudtirol | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Marco Druso |
| coach days | 384.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1539.14 | 1557.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.83 | -4.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.80 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 29.98 | 26.82 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |