← Serie B 2023 · Sat, Aug 19, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Di Marco
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sampdoria win | 41% | 2.47 |
| Ternana win | 30% | 3.30 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.27 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ternana +0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Sampdoria +0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Libero Liberati |