Texas Rangers 7–3 Houston Astros

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 11, 12:05 AM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Texas Rangers win	58%	1.65
Houston Astros win	42%	2.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Houston Astros	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	3
Texas Rangers	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	—	7

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Texas Rangers	Houston Astros
congestion 21d	17.00	16.00
elo	1502.12	1493.88
elo momentum (last 5)	-6.57	0.63
matches since win	0.00	0.00
rest days	1.00	5.19
runs against avg (last 10)	4.30	4.80
runs for avg (last 10)	4.90	4.30