St. Louis Cardinals 2–1 Atlanta Braves

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 11, 12:15 AM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Atlanta Braves win	59%	1.62
St. Louis Cardinals win	41%	2.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Atlanta Braves	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	—	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	St. Louis Cardinals	Atlanta Braves
congestion 21d	15.00	15.00
elo	1500.55	1539.88
elo momentum (last 5)	12.22	2.20
matches since win	2.00	0.00
rest days	1.02	1.32
runs against avg (last 10)	3.80	4.70
runs for avg (last 10)	4.80	5.60