Minnesota Twins 3–4 Los Angeles Angels

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 11, 12:10 AM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Angels win	71%	1.36
Minnesota Twins win	29%	3.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Los Angeles Angels	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	4
Minnesota Twins	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Minnesota Twins	Los Angeles Angels
congestion 21d	16.00	15.00
elo	1467.26	1428.83
elo momentum (last 5)	10.47	-12.57
matches since win	1.00	6.00
rest days	1.27	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	4.60	5.30
runs for avg (last 10)	5.50	3.30