← Liga MX 2026 · Mon, Aug 3, 01:00 AM UTC · ref: Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle, Mexico
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Toluca win
61%
1.70
Draw
22%
4.60
Necaxa win
17%
6.04
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
64%
1.52
Under
36%
2.70
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
60%
1.57
No
40%
2.45
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
51%
1.95
Under 9.5
49%
1.94
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
52%
1.83
Over 5.5
48%
2.07
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Necaxa win
5.50
5.40
-1.8%
Draw
4.40
4.34
-1.4%
Toluca win
1.47
1.52
+3.1%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.