← Liga MX 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 11:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez, Mexico
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Club America win
66%
1.45
Draw
20%
5.00
Santos Laguna win
14%
7.50
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
59%
1.65
Under
41%
2.47
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
52%
1.80
No
48%
2.00
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
51%
1.90
Under 9.5
49%
2.06
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
53%
1.83
Over 5.5
47%
2.07
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Santos Laguna win
7.30
7.00
-4.1%
Draw
4.75
4.75
0.0%
Club America win
1.36
1.38
+1.1%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.