← Liga MX 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 03:00 AM UTC · ref: Q. Contreras
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Cruz Azul win
70%
1.37
Draw
18%
5.50
Atlante FC win
11%
10.00
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
62%
1.55
Under
38%
2.62
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
52%
1.87
No
48%
2.05
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
51%
1.82
Under 9.5
49%
1.93
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 4.5
57%
1.62
Under 4.5
43%
2.20
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Atlante FC win
8.00
8.50
+6.3%
Draw
4.93
5.20
+5.6%
Cruz Azul win
1.33
1.32
-0.8%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.