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Leon 1–0 CF Pachuca

← Liga MX 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 01:00 AM UTC · ref: H. Gomez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CF Pachuca win40%2.44
Leon win32%3.10
Draw28%3.60

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.87
Under46%2.12

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes58%1.67
No42%2.35

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.554%1.73
Under 9.546%2.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 5.553%1.87
Over 5.547%2.00

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
CF Pachuca win2.322.30-0.9%
Draw3.383.32-1.8%
Leon win2.842.90+2.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Starting XIs

Leon · 4-1-4-1 · Javier Gandolfi

Oscar García · Iván Moreno · Jhohan Romaña · Juan Guevara · Sebastián Vegas · José Rodríguez · Jordi Cortizo · Rodrigo Echeverría · Fernando Beltrán · Edgar Guerra · Daniel Arcila

CF Pachuca · 4-2-3-1 · Benjamin Mora

Carlos Moreno · Alan Mozo · Eduardo Bauermann · Sergio Barreto · Francisco Venegas · Christian Rivera · Elías Montiel · Nicolás Vallejo · Rodolfo Pizarro · Oussama Idrissi · Salomón Rondón

confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeonCF Pachuca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.28
box share (last 5)0.620.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days213.00427.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Leon
5.80
4.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.262.83
elo1502.271556.72
elo momentum (last 5)-47.7414.20
eye test v10.020.03
eye trend v10.15-0.30
form points (last 5)0.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.58
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.600.73
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win6.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0081.80
possession avg (last 5)48.4048.40
rest days7.926.00
season ppg0.001.50
skill v10.060.08
solidity v1-1.140.09
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.40
squad age28.5529.94
state index-1.000.30
sterile dominance v10.01-0.27
threat rate (last 10)0.250.32
threat rate (last 3)0.300.31
threat rate (last 5)0.260.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.821.18
xg for avg (last 5)1.051.19