← Liga MX 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 01:00 AM UTC · ref: J. Camacho Peregrina
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Monterrey win
37%
2.85
Atlas win
35%
2.83
Draw
28%
3.50
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
50%
2.02
Under
50%
2.01
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
2.20
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 9.5
52%
1.82
Over 9.5
48%
2.00
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
56%
1.70
Over 5.5
44%
2.20
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Monterrey win
2.59
2.60
+0.4%
Draw
3.25
3.30
+1.5%
Atlas win
2.60
2.62
+0.8%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.