← Liga MX 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 03:00 AM UTC · ref: V. Arce
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Atletico San Luis win
40%
2.46
Club Tijuana win
33%
3.05
Draw
27%
3.60
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
55%
1.82
Under
45%
2.20
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
59%
1.67
No
41%
2.38
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 9.5
53%
1.85
Over 9.5
47%
2.06
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 4.5
56%
1.67
Under 4.5
44%
2.10
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Club Tijuana win
2.96
2.85
-3.7%
Draw
3.40
3.45
+1.5%
Atletico San Luis win
2.24
2.35
+4.9%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.