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Puebla 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas

← Liga MX 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 01:00 AM UTC · ref: A. Escobedo Gonzalez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guadalajara Chivas win54%2.00
Draw24%4.17
Puebla win22%5.00

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.87
Under45%2.17

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes55%1.73
No45%2.10

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.553%1.84
Under 9.547%2.05

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 5.553%1.78
Over 5.547%2.00

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Guadalajara Chivas win1.931.67-13.5%
Draw3.523.90+10.6%
Puebla win3.584.60+28.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Starting XIs

Puebla · 4-2-3-1 · Gerardo Espinoza

D. Gutierrez · I. Moreno · F. Almada · J. Vargas · F. Monarrez · A. Organista · S. Sanabria · K. Velasco · C. Baltazar · E. Gomez · E. Mustre

Guadalajara Chivas · 3-1-4-2 · Gabriel Milito

R. Rangel · D. Aguirre · L. Romo · J. Castillo · F. Gonzalez · R. Ledezma · B. Gutierrez · J. Carrillo · B. Gonzalez · R. Alvarado · A. Gonzalez

confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPueblaGuadalajara Chivas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.33
box share (last 5)0.580.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days212.00518.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.202.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Cuauhtemoc
4.40
7.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.265.31
elo1345.351539.24
elo momentum (last 5)-1.33-3.94
eye test v1-0.500.50
eye trend v1-0.280.42
form points (last 5)3.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.480.48
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.720.72
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4083.40
possession avg (last 5)40.6054.00
rest days10.006.08
season ppg1.501.50
skill v1-0.540.59
solidity v10.760.35
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.20
squad age26.3425.77
state index-0.680.02
sterile dominance v1-0.340.08
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.33
threat rate (last 5)0.240.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.861.21
xg for avg (last 5)0.991.43