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CF Pachuca 1–2 Club Queretaro

← Liga MX 2026 · Mon, Jul 27, 01:00 AM UTC · ref: Maximiliano Quintero Hernandez, Mexico

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CF Pachuca win60%1.62
Draw23%4.20
Club Queretaro win17%6.27

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.75
Under44%2.22

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes54%1.80
No46%2.10

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.553%1.82
Under 9.547%2.05

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 5.556%1.70
Over 5.544%2.10

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Club Queretaro win5.305.52+4.2%
Draw4.004.10+2.5%
CF Pachuca win1.551.56+0.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Starting XIs

CF Pachuca · 4-2-3-1 · Benjamin Mora

Carlos Moreno · Alan Mozo · Eduardo Bauermann · Sergio Barreto · Francisco Venegas · Christian Rivera · Elías Montiel · Kenedy · Rodolfo Pizarro · Oussama Idrissi · Salomón Rondón

Club Queretaro · 4-2-3-1 · Eduardo Gonzalez Herrera Esteban

Guillermo Allison · Bayron Duarte · Diego Reyes · Lucas Abascia · Daniel Parra · Carlo Adriano García · Santiago Homenchenko · Enzo Giménez · Mateo Coronel · Paulo Victor · Ali Ávila

confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCF PachucaClub Queretaro
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.39
box share (last 5)0.440.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days421.00207.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.006.40
corners for avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Miguel Hidalgo
6.00
4.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.392.55
elo1571.941430.90
elo momentum (last 5)19.1315.38
eye test v10.810.35
eye trend v1-0.52-0.29
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.750.88
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.730.69
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6079.00
possession avg (last 5)48.6040.40
rest days8.087.92
season ppg3.000.00
skill v10.29-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.60
squad age29.9528.58
state index0.46-0.07
sterile dominance v1-0.64-0.95
threat rate (last 10)0.320.30
threat rate (last 3)0.280.27
threat rate (last 5)0.340.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20