← Liga MX 2026 · Sun, Jul 26, 03:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Molina Astorga
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Santos Laguna win
38%
2.60
Atlas win
34%
3.10
Draw
29%
3.40
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
50%
1.98
Under
50%
1.98
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
2.20
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
51%
1.92
Under 9.5
49%
1.94
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 5.5
50%
1.87
Under 5.5
50%
1.87
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Atlas win
3.00
2.71
-9.7%
Draw
3.30
3.25
-1.5%
Santos Laguna win
2.25
2.53
+12.4%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.