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Atlante FC 1–1 Club America

← Liga MX 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 03:00 AM UTC · ref: Katia García, Mexico

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club America win55%1.78
Draw25%4.04
Atlante FC win20%5.60

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.87
Under48%2.04

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes53%1.80
No47%2.05

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.551%1.88
Over 9.549%1.96

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 4.553%1.88
Under 4.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Club America win1.731.64-5.2%
Draw3.583.85+7.5%
Atlante FC win4.385.00+14.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Starting XIs

Atlante FC · 5-3-2 · Ernesto Herrera Aguirre Miguel

Óscar Jiménez · Walter Portales · Nicolas Carrera · Eduardo Tercero · Luis Sánchez · Walter Clar · Eugenio Pizzuto · Martín Fernández · Luis Calzadilla · Luis Puente · Jhojan Julio

Club America · 4-2-3-1 · Guillermo Almada Alves Jorge

Rodolfo Cota · Dagoberto Espinoza · Ramón Juárez · Miguel Vazquez · Kevin Álvarez · Erick Sánchez · Ícaro · Isaías Violante · Raphael Veiga · Cristián Borja · Henry Martín

confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAtlante FCClub America
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)—0.15
accuracy ratio (last 5)—0.22
box share (last 5)—0.77
cards avg (last 5)—0.00
coach days54.001607.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corner diff avg (last 5)—1.80
corners against avg (last 5)—3.20
corners for avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Banorte
—
5.00
corners volatility (last 10)—3.50
elo1492.401710.63
elo momentum (last 5)—-13.23
eye test v1—-0.75
eye trend v1—-0.51
form points (last 5)—7.00
goal diff avg (last 5)—-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)—0.80
goals for avg (last 5)—0.60
goals volatility (last 10)—1.63
keeper form v1—0.76
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)—84.00
possession avg (last 5)—61.60
rest days8.086.00
season ppg0.003.00
skill v1—1.32
sot against avg (last 5)—2.80
sot for avg (last 10)—4.10
sot for avg (last 3)—2.00
sot for avg (last 5)—2.80
squad age—25.61
state index-0.070.33
sterile dominance v1—1.54
threat rate (last 10)—0.21
threat rate (last 3)—0.15
threat rate (last 5)—0.16
venue ppg (last 5)—0.80