← Liga MX 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 03:00 AM UTC · ref: Joaquin Alberto Vizcarra Armenta, Mexico
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Club Tijuana win
46%
2.15
Leon win
28%
3.70
Draw
26%
3.86
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
57%
1.72
Under
43%
2.30
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
59%
1.62
No
41%
2.38
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 9.5
51%
1.85
Over 9.5
49%
2.00
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
55%
1.72
Over 5.5
45%
2.10
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Leon win
3.20
3.40
+6.2%
Draw
3.50
3.60
+2.9%
Club Tijuana win
2.10
2.00
-4.8%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.