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Toluca 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

← Liga MX 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 03:00 AM UTC · ref: Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez, Mexico

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Toluca win57%1.80
Draw23%4.30
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win20%5.25

across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.67
Under42%2.40

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes57%1.67
No43%2.25

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.552%1.86
Over 9.548%2.05

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 4.551%1.80
Over 4.549%1.88

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win4.385.00+14.2%
Draw3.854.10+6.5%
Toluca win1.711.59-7.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Starting XIs

Toluca · 4-2-3-1 · Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio

Hugo Gonzalez · Diego Barbosa · Bruno Méndez · Luan · Brian García · Víctor Guzmán · Fernando Arce Juárez · Helinho · Jesús Ricardo Angulo · Alexis Vega · Jorge Díaz

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 4-3-3 · Esteban Solari

Keylor Navas · Pablo Bennevendo · Nathan Silva · Rubén Duarte · Álvaro Angulo · Rodrigo Lopez · Pedro Vite · Victor Arteaga · Uriel Antuna · Juninho · Robert Morales

confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTolucaU.N.A.M. - Pumas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.28
box share (last 5)0.620.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days598.00294.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nemesio Diez
3.60
4.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.182.75
elo1715.191496.83
elo momentum (last 5)40.39-26.80
eye test v10.93-0.85
eye trend v1-0.17-0.12
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.03
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.660.64
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6081.40
possession avg (last 5)45.4046.00
rest days3.083.17
season ppg3.000.00
skill v1-0.180.10
sot against avg (last 5)1.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.402.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.331.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.202.60
squad age28.0328.76
state index1.34-0.61
sterile dominance v1-0.490.37
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.290.18
threat rate (last 5)0.290.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80