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Club Queretaro 0–1 Club America

← Liga MX 2026 · Sun, Jul 19, 03:00 AM UTC · ref: Luis Santander, Mexico

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club America win47%2.02
Draw27%3.60
Club Queretaro win26%3.75

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.98

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes54%1.75
No46%2.07

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.551%1.88
Under 9.549%1.93

across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 4.555%1.70
Under 4.545%2.07

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Club America win1.951.97+1.0%
Draw3.453.46+0.3%
Club Queretaro win3.643.640.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Starting XIs

Club America · 4-4-2 · Guillermo Almada Alves Jorge

Rodolfo Cota · Dagoberto Espinoza · Ramón Juárez · Miguel Vazquez · Kevin Álvarez · Isaías Violante · Erick Sánchez · Alan Cervantes · Cristián Borja · Raphael Veiga · Henry Martín

Club Queretaro · 4-2-3-1 · Eduardo Gonzalez Herrera Esteban

Guillermo Allison · Bayron Duarte · Diego Reyes · Lucas Abascia · Daniel Parra · Carlo Adriano García · Santiago Homenchenko · Jean Unjanque · Mateo Coronel · Juan Pablo Cázares · Ali Ávila

confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub QueretaroClub America
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.23
box share (last 5)0.580.78
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days199.001601.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio La Corregidora
5.00
3.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.552.73
elo1435.481706.04
elo momentum (last 5)10.88-11.14
eye test v10.47-0.75
eye trend v10.03-0.42
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.66
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
keeper form v10.700.81
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6084.60
possession avg (last 5)40.8059.60
rest days30.0030.00
skill v1-0.301.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.80
squad age28.9426.35
state index-0.010.22
sterile dominance v1-0.811.44
threat rate (last 10)0.290.20
threat rate (last 3)0.320.12
threat rate (last 5)0.310.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20