← Liga MX 2026 · Sun, Jul 19, 01:07 AM UTC · ref: Daniel Quintero Huitrón, Mexico
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Guadalajara Chivas win
43%
2.25
Toluca win
31%
3.25
Draw
27%
3.60
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
55%
1.75
Under
45%
2.18
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
59%
1.62
No
41%
2.38
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 9.5
51%
1.87
Over 9.5
49%
1.93
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
53%
1.75
Over 5.5
47%
2.00
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Toluca win
2.95
3.10
+5.3%
Draw
3.50
3.50
0.0%
Guadalajara Chivas win
2.24
2.18
-2.7%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Starting XIs
Toluca · 4-2-3-1 · Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio