← Liga MX 2026 · Sun, Jul 19, 01:00 AM UTC · ref: Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava, Mexico
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Monterrey win
61%
1.57
Draw
21%
4.70
Santos Laguna win
18%
5.80
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
66%
1.47
Under
34%
2.99
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
62%
1.53
No
38%
2.63
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 9.5
50%
1.92
Over 9.5
50%
1.92
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
53%
1.75
Over 5.5
47%
2.00
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Santos Laguna win
5.35
5.40
+0.9%
Draw
4.35
4.50
+3.4%
Monterrey win
1.50
1.50
0.0%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.