← Liga MX 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 11:00 PM UTC · ref: Vicente Jassiel Reynoso Arce, Mexico
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win
41%
2.41
CF Pachuca win
32%
3.12
Draw
28%
3.60
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
53%
1.83
Under
47%
2.08
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
57%
1.67
No
43%
2.22
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 9.5
52%
1.82
Over 9.5
48%
2.02
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 5.5
52%
1.80
Over 5.5
48%
1.95
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
CF Pachuca win
2.96
3.00
+1.4%
Draw
3.40
3.40
0.0%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas win
2.25
2.25
0.0%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.