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FC Juarez 0–1 Puebla

← Liga MX 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 03:00 AM UTC · ref: Fernando Hernandez, Mexico

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Juarez win56%1.73
Draw24%4.08
Puebla win20%5.25

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.16

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes55%1.71
No45%2.10

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 9.551%1.87
Under 9.549%1.95

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 4.553%1.73
Under 4.547%2.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Puebla win4.784.76-0.4%
Draw3.873.88+0.4%
FC Juarez win1.651.65+0.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Starting XIs

Puebla · 4-2-3-1 · Alberto Espigares

Daniel Gutierrez · Iker Moreno · Facundo Almada · Juan Pablo Vargas · Fernando Monarrez · Alonso Ramirez · Alberto Herrera · Kevin Velasco · Alejandro Organista · Emiliano Gómez · Ignacio Maestro Puch

FC Juarez · 4-2-3-1 · Pedro Caixinha

Sebastián Jurado · Javier Aquino · Jesús Murillo · Haret Ortega · Alejandro Mayorga · Lucas Romero · Monchu · Madson de Souza Silva · Guilherme Castilho · Ricardinho · Óscar Estupiñán

confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC JuarezPuebla
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.39
box share (last 5)0.390.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days198.00198.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Olimpico Benito Juarez
4.40
4.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.172.41
elo1442.531332.55
elo momentum (last 5)-14.10-16.82
eye test v1-0.67-0.22
eye trend v10.07-0.38
form points (last 5)4.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.760.79
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win5.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0076.40
possession avg (last 5)56.0040.80
rest days30.0030.00
skill v10.97-0.66
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.60
squad age27.0026.61
state index-0.51-1.30
sterile dominance v11.17-0.58
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.180.21
threat rate (last 5)0.170.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.00