FC Juarez v Puebla

← Liga MX 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 03:00 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
FC Juarez win	56%	1.73
Draw	24%	4.08
Puebla win	20%	5.25

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over	55%	1.75
Under	45%	2.16

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Yes	55%	1.71
No	45%	2.10

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over 9.5	51%	1.87
Under 9.5	49%	1.95

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

How many cards?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Over 4.5	53%	1.73
Under 4.5	47%	2.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Puebla win	4.78	4.76	-0.4%
Draw	3.87	3.88	+0.4%
FC Juarez win	1.65	1.65	+0.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.