← Liga MX 2026 · Sat, Jul 18, 01:00 AM UTC · ref: Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle, Mexico
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Leon win
47%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.65
Atlas win
25%
4.00
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
51%
1.98
Under
49%
2.02
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
54%
1.80
No
46%
2.15
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 9.5
51%
1.92
Under 9.5
49%
1.94
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 4.5
57%
1.67
Under 4.5
43%
2.20
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Atlas win
3.70
3.70
0.0%
Draw
3.40
3.46
+1.9%
Leon win
1.96
1.95
-0.8%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Starting XIs
Leon · 4-1-4-1 · Javier Gandolfi
O. Garcia · I. Moreno · J. Guevara · S. Vegas · S. Reyes · I. Rodriguez · S. Santos · R. Echeverria · D. Arcila · I. Diaz · D. Cambindo
Atlas · 4-2-3-1 · Diego Cocca
A. Sanchez · Gustavo Ferrareis · M. Capasso · R. Schlegel · J. Rodriguez · A. Rocha · E. Zaldivar · Duk · A. Gonzalez · S. Hernandez · R. Mmaee
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.