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Club Tijuana v Tigres UANL

← Liga MX 2026 · Fri, Jul 17, 03:00 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tigres UANL win47%2.08
Draw27%3.60
Club Tijuana win26%3.90

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.02

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes56%1.70
No44%2.15

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.552%1.83
Over 9.548%2.00

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 5.555%1.70
Under 5.545%2.07

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Tigres UANL win2.001.99-0.5%
Draw3.453.44-0.1%
Club Tijuana win3.523.60+2.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Caliente