← Liga MX 2026 · Fri, Jul 17, 03:00 AM UTC · ref: Ismael Rosario Lopez Penuelas, Mexico
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Tigres UANL win
47%
2.08
Draw
27%
3.60
Club Tijuana win
26%
3.90
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over
52%
1.85
Under
48%
2.11
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Yes
56%
1.70
No
44%
2.15
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under 9.5
52%
1.83
Over 9.5
48%
2.00
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 5.5
50%
2.00
Under 5.5
50%
2.07
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Tigres UANL win
2.00
2.00
0.0%
Draw
3.45
3.45
+0.1%
Club Tijuana win
3.52
3.55
+0.7%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.