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Necaxa v Atlante FC

← Liga MX 2026 · Fri, Jul 17, 01:00 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Necaxa win49%1.98
Draw26%3.80
Atlante FC win25%4.20

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.15

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yes58%1.65
No42%2.22

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under 9.551%1.82
Over 9.549%1.98

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 4.552%1.74
Under 4.548%1.92

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Atlante FC win3.603.82+6.1%
Draw3.603.600.0%
Necaxa win1.911.88-1.6%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Victoria