Baltimore Orioles 8–2 Kansas City Royals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 05:35 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Baltimore Orioles win	56%	1.80
Kansas City Royals win	44%	2.35

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Kansas City Royals win		2.09	2.24	+6.8%
Baltimore Orioles win		1.73	1.65	-4.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Kansas City Royals	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Baltimore Orioles	0	2	0	0	0	5	1	0	—	8

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Baltimore Orioles	Kansas City Royals
congestion 21d	16.00	16.00
elo	1493.67	1449.31
elo momentum (last 5)	9.56	-8.16
matches since win	0.00	3.00
rest days	0.77	0.77
runs against avg (last 10)	3.80	5.10
runs for avg (last 10)	4.20	2.50