Cincinnati Reds 4–8 Chicago Cubs

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 05:40 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Chicago Cubs win	55%	3.30
Cincinnati Reds win	45%	23.43

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Chicago Cubs win		1.79	1.76	-1.8%
Cincinnati Reds win		2.09	2.09	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Chicago Cubs	2	0	0	2	0	0	4	0	0	8
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Cincinnati Reds	Chicago Cubs
congestion 21d	16.00	16.00
elo	1473.49	1533.67
elo momentum (last 5)	-2.46	-5.06
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	0.77	0.77
runs against avg (last 10)	3.70	4.90
runs for avg (last 10)	2.90	5.30