San Diego Padres 8–7 Toronto Blue Jays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 12:40 AM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Toronto Blue Jays win	52%	4.51
San Diego Padres win	48%	2.12

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Toronto Blue Jays win		2.01	1.79	-11.0%
San Diego Padres win		1.83	2.08	+13.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Toronto Blue Jays	0	4	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7
San Diego Padres	2	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	—	8

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	San Diego Padres	Toronto Blue Jays
congestion 21d	15.00	13.00
elo	1496.10	1512.02
elo momentum (last 5)	-12.60	0.92
matches since win	10.00	0.00
rest days	0.96	0.96
runs against avg (last 10)	8.10	4.20
runs for avg (last 10)	3.10	3.30