Los Angeles Dodgers 2–9 Arizona Diamondbacks

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 01:10 AM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	67%	1.57
Arizona Diamondbacks win	33%	3.29

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Arizona Diamondbacks win		3.29	2.85	-13.2%
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.36	1.45	+6.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Arizona Diamondbacks	0	0	0	1	0	5	1	2	0	9
Los Angeles Dodgers	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Los Angeles Dodgers	Arizona Diamondbacks
congestion 21d	15.00	15.00
elo	1604.93	1500.04
elo momentum (last 5)	-5.63	5.40
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	0.96	0.96
runs against avg (last 10)	4.50	4.10
runs for avg (last 10)	6.10	4.10