Tampa Bay Rays 6–1 Seattle Mariners

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 11, 08:10 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Tampa Bay Rays win	51%	1.90
Seattle Mariners win	49%	1.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Seattle Mariners win		1.97	1.95	-1.0%
Tampa Bay Rays win		1.86	1.88	+0.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Seattle Mariners	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Tampa Bay Rays	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	1	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Tampa Bay Rays	Seattle Mariners
congestion 21d	17.00	15.00
elo	1521.45	1516.77
elo momentum (last 5)	-4.41	-4.33
matches since win	0.00	2.00
rest days	0.88	0.88
runs against avg (last 10)	3.60	3.30
runs for avg (last 10)	5.00	4.30