Baltimore Orioles 6–1 Kansas City Royals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 11, 11:05 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Baltimore Orioles win	58%	1.65
Kansas City Royals win	42%	2.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Kansas City Royals win		2.29	2.29	0.0%
Baltimore Orioles win		1.65	1.65	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Kansas City Royals	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
Baltimore Orioles	0	1	0	2	1	1	0	1	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Baltimore Orioles	Kansas City Royals
congestion 21d	16.00	15.00
elo	1490.50	1452.48
elo momentum (last 5)	10.24	-8.21
matches since win	0.00	2.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	4.10	6.70
runs for avg (last 10)	3.90	2.50