San Diego Padres 3–5 Toronto Blue Jays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 11, 01:40 AM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
San Diego Padres win	74%	1.31
Toronto Blue Jays win	26%	3.66

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Toronto Blue Jays	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	5
San Diego Padres	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	San Diego Padres	Toronto Blue Jays
congestion 21d	15.00	13.00
elo	1499.32	1508.80
elo momentum (last 5)	-15.80	-0.71
matches since win	9.00	1.00
rest days	1.00	6.23
runs against avg (last 10)	7.70	4.20
runs for avg (last 10)	3.50	2.90