Los Angeles Dodgers 3–9 Arizona Diamondbacks

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 11, 02:10 AM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	65%	1.48
Arizona Diamondbacks win	35%	2.73

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Arizona Diamondbacks	2	0	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	9
Los Angeles Dodgers	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Los Angeles Dodgers	Arizona Diamondbacks
congestion 21d	15.00	14.00
elo	1610.93	1494.05
elo momentum (last 5)	3.32	3.05
matches since win	0.00	0.00
rest days	6.00	1.02
runs against avg (last 10)	3.90	4.20
runs for avg (last 10)	6.20	4.10