← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, May 17, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Turkmen
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 65% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.00 |
| Eyupspor win | 16% | 5.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eyupspor −1.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Fenerbahce −1.25 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under | 35% | 2.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu |