← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, May 17, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: H. U. Meler
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Antalyaspor win | 54% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| Kocaelispor win | 22% | 4.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kocaelispor −0.75 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Antalyaspor −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 21 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Corendon Airlines Park |