← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, May 9, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. D. Kayatepe
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kocaelispor win | 46% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Karagumruk win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Karagumruk −0.5 | 55% | 1.73 |
| Kocaelispor −0.5 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.78 |
| Over | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 0 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu |