← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, May 9, 05:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Genclerbirligi win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| Kasimpasa win | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kasimpasa −0.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Genclerbirligi −0.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 24 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 10 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.