β SΓΌper Lig 2025-26 Β· Sat, May 9, 05:00 PM UTC Β· ref: O. Cakir
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Besiktas win | 55% | 1.68 |
| Trabzonspor win | 24% | 3.80 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.33 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Besiktas β0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Trabzonspor β0.75 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 1.33 |
| Under | 28% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand