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Gaziantep 0–2 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Fri, May 1, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. B. Taskinsoy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win42%2.20
Gaziantep win31%3.00
Draw27%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep +0.2552%1.83
Besiktas +0.2548%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.67
Under44%2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
17Shots12
4On target5
8Corners2
5Fouls15
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.600.60
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
coach days151.00485.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.08
corner diff avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Stadyumu
-2.20
1.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.062.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.11
dominance (last 5)0.460.60
elo1491.021657.50
elo momentum (last 5)-22.09-16.76
eye test v10.260.89
eye trend v1-0.020.15
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.690.64
league points44.0067.00
league rank12.005.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8084.00
possession avg (last 5)47.2055.80
rest days6.234.00
scorer concentration0.290.22
season ppg1.221.81
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.805.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.4016.60
skill v10.170.98
solidity v1-0.900.29
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.905.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.007.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.806.00
squad age31.0627.11
state index-0.400.34
sterile dominance v1-0.160.18
threat rate (last 10)0.260.30
threat rate (last 3)0.280.30
threat rate (last 5)0.280.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.581.27
xg for avg (last 5)1.231.87