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Gaziantep 3–0 Kayserispor

← SΓΌper Lig 2025-26 Β· Mon, Apr 20, 05:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Karaoglan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep win42%2.20
Kayserispor win31%3.00
Draw28%3.30

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor βˆ’0.2552%1.83
Gaziantep βˆ’0.2548%1.98

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.70
Under45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
20Shots17
6On target7
5Corners3
10Fouls11
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.610.51
cards avg (last 5)2.601.40
coach days140.0019.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.04
corner diff avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueGaziantep Stadyumu
-3.40
4.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.803.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.407.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.412.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.15
dominance (last 5)0.470.46
elo1498.941421.59
elo momentum (last 5)-1.10-27.33
eye test v10.67-0.33
eye trend v10.09-0.12
form points (last 5)5.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
keeper form v10.640.66
league points41.0027.00
league rank13.0020.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2080.20
possession avg (last 5)44.2045.40
rest days7.009.00
scorer concentration0.290.38
season ppg1.210.77
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.4011.40
skill v1-0.12-0.21
solidity v1-0.58-0.38
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.40
squad age31.06β€”
state index-0.18-0.98
sterile dominance v1-0.46-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.270.20
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.391.40
xg for avg (last 5)1.341.13