← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 05:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Galatasaray win | 67% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.50 |
| Genclerbirligi win | 12% | 7.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Galatasaray +1.25 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Genclerbirligi +1.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under | 40% | 2.35 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.