← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Yilmaz
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Goztep win | 39% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
| Kocaelispor win | 30% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Goztep +0 | 56% | 1.68 |
| Kocaelispor +0 | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 23 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu |