β SΓΌper Lig 2025-26 Β· Sat, Mar 14, 05:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C. Altay
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Trabzonspor win | 53% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
| Rizespor win | 23% | 4.00 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Trabzonspor β0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Rizespor β0.5 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand