⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Genclerbirligi 2–1 Gaziantep

← SΓΌper Lig 2025-26 Β· Sun, Feb 1, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: E. Mertoglu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win44%2.15
Gaziantep win29%3.25
Draw28%3.40

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep βˆ’0.2550%1.90
Genclerbirligi βˆ’0.2550%1.90

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.80
Under47%2.00

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots14
6On target5
3Corners2
18Fouls13
6Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.27
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.10
box share (last 5)0.670.61
cards avg (last 5)1.402.60
coach days427.0062.00
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.09
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadium
corner diff avg (last 5)
-2.00
-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.994.30
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.12
dominance (last 5)0.490.44
elo1441.861512.81
elo momentum (last 5)14.282.08
eye test v10.03-0.29
eye trend v10.18-0.14
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.25
keeper form v10.660.70
league points23.0029.00
league rank13.0010.00
matches since blank3.005.00
matches since clean sheet3.008.00
matches since win2.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2077.60
possession avg (last 5)46.4043.20
rest days7.007.10
scorer concentration0.220.29
season ppg1.051.26
shot diff avg (last 5)0.40-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.6013.40
skill v1-0.28-0.38
solidity v10.33-1.59
sot against avg (last 5)3.806.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.20
squad ageβ€”31.06
state index0.05-0.73
sterile dominance v1-0.55-0.82
threat rate (last 10)0.300.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.33
threat rate (last 5)0.290.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.231.85
xg for avg (last 5)1.331.26