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Gaziantep 1–1 Konyaspor

← SΓΌper Lig 2025-26 Β· Sun, Jan 25, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: K. Saglam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep win43%2.15
Konyaspor win30%3.10
Draw27%3.40

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor βˆ’0.2550%1.90
Gaziantep βˆ’0.2550%1.90

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.75
Under46%2.05

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots11
2On target6
10Corners4
16Fouls15
6Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.640.66
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
coach days55.00177.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.05
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueKalyon Stadyumu
corner diff avg (last 5)
-2.40
1.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.002.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.844.35
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.13
dominance (last 5)0.410.53
elo1515.481480.49
elo momentum (last 5)-18.61-15.84
eye test v1-0.050.08
eye trend v1-0.260.13
form points (last 5)2.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.680.49
league points28.0022.00
league rank9.0013.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet7.005.00
matches since win7.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2083.60
possession avg (last 5)46.6053.80
rest days7.775.90
scorer concentration0.290.44
season ppg1.271.05
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.001.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.0015.60
skill v1-0.040.64
solidity v1-1.99-1.05
sot against avg (last 5)7.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.80
squad age31.06β€”
state index-0.81-0.67
sterile dominance v1-0.370.09
threat rate (last 10)0.250.29
threat rate (last 3)0.320.30
threat rate (last 5)0.280.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80
xg against avg (last 5)2.171.93
xg for avg (last 5)1.391.52