⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Besiktas 1–0 Kayserispor

← SΓΌper Lig 2025-26 Β· Mon, Jan 19, 05:00 PM UTC Β· ref: O. Ergun

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win67%1.37
Draw18%5.00
Kayserispor win14%6.50

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor βˆ’1.553%1.78
Besiktas βˆ’1.547%2.03

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over67%1.40
Under33%2.88

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
31Shots9
9On target3
9Corners2
12Fouls15
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.640.45
cards avg (last 5)3.002.20
coach days383.00171.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.06
corner diff avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueTupras Stadium
1.80
-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.602.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.502.04
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.12
dominance (last 5)0.550.46
elo1633.761490.70
elo momentum (last 5)12.76-5.25
eye test v11.49-0.44
eye trend v10.33-0.17
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.05
keeper form v10.770.70
league points34.0019.00
league rank6.0017.00
matches since blank15.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4081.80
possession avg (last 5)53.4044.60
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.220.38
season ppg1.700.95
shot diff avg (last 5)2.80-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)19.0011.20
skill v10.75-0.29
solidity v10.180.25
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.904.30
sot for avg (last 3)7.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)7.403.40
squad age28.92β€”
state index0.59-0.25
sterile dominance v1-0.62-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.310.25
threat rate (last 3)0.380.25
threat rate (last 5)0.360.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.051.26
xg for avg (last 5)2.120.89