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Genclerbirligi 4–3 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 22, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: H. U. Meler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win42%2.34
Genclerbirligi win30%3.36
Draw29%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi +0.2552%1.91
Trabzonspor +0.2548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.92
Under49%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Dimitris Goutas · Genclerbirligi
7'🟨Metehan Mimaroğlu · Genclerbirligi
31'⚽Franco Tongya · Genclerbirligi
45'🟨Danylo Sikan · Trabzonspor
45'⚽Felipe Augusto · Trabzonspor
50'⚽Felipe Augusto · Trabzonspor
52'⚽Oğulcan Ülgün · Genclerbirligi
59'⚽Sekou Koita · Genclerbirligi
67'⚽ (pen)Ernest Muçi · Trabzonspor
71'🟨Wagner Pina · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
18Shots14
9On target7
6Corners6
6Fouls15
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.37
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.610.59
cards avg (last 5)0.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadium
coach days386.00296.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.204.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.002.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.806.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.953.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.16
dominance (last 5)0.410.58
elo1434.871691.62
elo momentum (last 5)16.2228.57
eye test v1-0.101.84
eye trend v1-0.35-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)55.7056.80
form points (last 5)5.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.003.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.45
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.35
keeper form v10.670.82
league points19.0042.00
league rank14.003.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6086.60
possession avg (last 5)38.6062.60
rest days10.008.00
scorer concentration0.210.27
season ppg1.002.21
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.806.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.2021.80
skill v1-0.641.59
solidity v1-0.02-0.58
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.507.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.679.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.008.40
squad age—27.16
state index-0.100.90
sterile dominance v1-1.260.28
threat rate (last 10)0.260.32
threat rate (last 3)0.230.37
threat rate (last 5)0.330.34
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.571.59
xg for avg (last 5)1.272.08