← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 21, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. D. Kayatepe
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor win | 54% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.59 |
| Karagumruk win | 19% | 5.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karagumruk −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Alanyaspor −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Ui-Jo Hwang · Alanyaspor |
| 19' | 🟨 | Efecan Karaca · Alanyaspor |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ui-Jo Hwang · Alanyaspor |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ruan · Alanyaspor |
| 58' | ⚽ | Güven Yalçın · Alanyaspor |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ricardo Esgaio · Karagumruk |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alanyaspor | Karagumruk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | GAİN Park Stadyumu |
| coach days | 20.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.11 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1515.05 | 1417.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.61 | -5.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.55 |
| solidity v1 | 1.03 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 0.96 |