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Eyupspor 0–3 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Yilmaz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win67%1.42
Draw20%4.95
Eyupspor win14%7.48

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eyupspor +1.2552%1.90
Fenerbahce +1.2548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce
34'⚽Marco Asensio · Fenerbahce
42'🟨Emir Ortakaya · Eyupspor
75'⚽Jhon Durán · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Taşkın Ilter · Eyupspor
90'🟨Mert Müldür · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
8Shots23
3On target7
4Corners5
12Fouls13
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEyupsporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.580.55
cards avg (last 5)2.601.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
coach days141.00172.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.001.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.407.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.502.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.19
dominance (last 5)0.450.65
elo1451.121817.97
elo momentum (last 5)-6.944.48
eye test v1-0.420.93
eye trend v10.04-0.58
first sub minute (last 10)59.6053.70
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.81
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
keeper form v10.750.81
league points17.0039.00
league rank18.004.00
matches since blank0.009.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0084.60
possession avg (last 5)49.6058.40
rest days7.104.88
scorer concentration0.220.22
season ppg0.892.05
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.409.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.8020.00
skill v1-0.071.29
solidity v1-0.521.41
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.708.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.677.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.80
squad age—28.67
state index-0.411.01
sterile dominance v10.330.46
threat rate (last 10)0.220.33
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.760.64
xg for avg (last 5)1.062.09