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Fenerbahce 4–0 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 15, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Ergun

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win78%1.22
Draw13%7.33
Konyaspor win9%11.79

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce −1.7551%1.90
Konyaspor −1.7549%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over64%1.53
Under36%2.81

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Jo Jin-ho · Konyaspor
28'⚽ (pen)Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce
30'⚽Mert Müldür · Fenerbahce
34'🟨Fred · Fenerbahce
37'⚽Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce
41'🟨Kerem Aktürkoğlu · Fenerbahce
48'🟨Uğurcan Yazğılı · Konyaspor
87'⚽Marco Asensio · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
17Shots17
9On target5
4Corners4
15Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.500.57
cards avg (last 5)1.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueChobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu
coach days167.00136.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d6.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.04
corner diff avg (last 5)2.603.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.20
corners for avg (last 5)8.006.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.154.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.240.14
dominance (last 5)0.700.58
elo1814.301488.48
elo momentum (last 5)-1.81-42.61
eye test v11.25-0.22
eye trend v1-1.11-0.41
first sub minute (last 10)56.2058.30
form points (last 5)7.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.730.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.790.51
league points36.0020.00
league rank4.0010.00
matches since blank8.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.8082.40
possession avg (last 5)59.6054.20
rest days3.889.13
scorer concentration0.240.40
season ppg2.001.11
shot diff avg (last 5)12.403.60
shots for avg (last 5)21.2014.80
skill v11.360.37
solidity v11.550.02
sot against avg (last 5)2.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)7.804.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.803.60
squad age29.41—
state index0.85-0.71
sterile dominance v10.290.22
threat rate (last 10)0.360.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.26
threat rate (last 5)0.310.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.611.41
xg for avg (last 5)2.101.19